But analysts and economists they are less optimistic

After the collapse of the number of transactions, the decline in the residential real estate prices continues. Prices are still only a gentle slope, buyers and sellers camping on their positions, but the movement is there. Already, the National Federation of real estate (Fnaim) noted ("Les Echos" of October 8) a decrease of 2.6 on a year in the market of the former in the third quarter. Yesterday, the last digits of the Observatory of individuals to individuals (PAP) on the former housing showed a decline of 1.7 of the purchase price of the apartments in October from September, and 1.2 for houses. Throughout the year, "apartments as homes are now cheaper there one year, with a relative decrease of 2 and 4.8", note PAP.

For the suite, real estate professionals display their confidence: the structural shortage of housing in France and the weakness of the stock of unsold new homes will allow that a decline in prices limited, both in the former ( 2 to 3 this year and 8 by the end of 2009 by the Fnaim) in the nine. But analysts and economists, they are less optimistic. In the nine "a decrease of 15 of the price of housing over three years has become too conservative," thus Judge Emmanuel Parot, analyst at Gilbert Dupont, who will review his contraction of price scenario but expected to do this, to know the builders programs reservation rate in the fourth quarter. Already, "the sales in the nine should be limited to 75,000 units this year and could go down to 60,000 units next year and to mental in 2010, said Emmanuel Parot. "The market and be at the level of the previous crisis, where he had reached a low point in an astounding 62 housing sold in 1992".

Join the trend long term

A return to the acute housing crisis from the beginning of the 1990s The scenario would be nothing surprising from the point of view of an economist, as the housing prices is assessed to the household income and this report, which varies little in the long term, is more reflected in the current market. "Today, the price of real estate in France is 70 higher than its trend long term taking into account the income of households, said Jacques Friggit, economist specializing in real estate, responsible for mission to the General Council of the environment." Over the period 1965 to 2000, the increase in the price of housing appears in phase with that of revenues. Since 2000, real estate prices increased faster, to spend an average of three years of income per household in about five years today.

In other countries, economists are a better correlation long-term of the prices at the rate of inflation, whose evolution is still slower than revenues. Today, "I do not see why the price of housing would not its long trend, which means a decrease of 40 of the price of real estate to constant income", continues Jacques Friggit.

Join this trend long term can be done in two ways: slowly, by a stagnation during fifteen or twenty years the price of housing in common while revenue will increase, or rapidly to the speed at which prices have left their level of long term since 2000. "The most likely scenario is a drop from 30 to 40 taking between five to seven years, said Jacques Friggit.". "Prices may even go down 10 below their long-term trend", 10 representative band of fluctuation considered normal. A faster scenario, over four years, seems it less likely because it would mean a collapse American ( 10 per year).

On the structural shortage of housing in France, invoked as a possible crisis by developers, "forty-five years of data do highlight no clear correlation, said Jacques Friggit: the drop in prices is not necessarily caused by excess supply of housing or stocks of unsold goods in developers." "However, autocorrelation is strong: If the price of housing varies faster that its trend of long-term over 12 months, it is likely it similarly in the twelve months". In other words, once activated, the decline is not almost stop.