Food trades the size is an advantage at two levels

It is the story of a Chicago malabar trying to invite to an old English chocolate through the window. Shocking! The malabar is called Kraft. It became to shots of acquisitions the number two world food (behind Nestlé) and intend to offer, either willingly or force, one of the last icons of British industry: the Cadbury group, a giant of the confectionery which celebrates this year its eighty percent five years of existence. By provoking hostilities, the American gave the signal of departure for a new round of consolidation in a profession accustomed to this kind of tectonic movements. In doing so, the target of Kraft is so attractive that analysts are already speculating about a battle of Giants around the most beautiful box of chocolate to England.

The entrance of the headquarters of Cadbury, in the suburb of Birmingham, it is still toying with the trunk of a magnificent poirier, last vestige of the garden of cottage purchased in 1879 by George Cadbury, son of the founder, from which he created in the late 19th century the town model and wise (no pubs or places of perdition) of Bournville. Because in England, the profession of chocolatier was always held by quakers. Dismissed from official posts and believe that exotic was a good and healthy substitute to alcohol, they prospered in the sale and manufacture of chocolate first to drink and eat.

Gradually, Cadbury has made household in local competition (the last, Rowntree, was purchased by Nestlé in 1988) and then went to the conquest of the empire. New Zealand, Australia, South Africa, India, no member of the Commonwealth is has eluded him. At the same time, the Group developed in two other trades of confectionery: sweets (candy) and the product. Result, the company is today the number five global chocolate (Dairy Milk), but the number two of chewing gum (Trident) and the number one of the sugar factory (Carambar). To extend yet, it has also assigned to giant acquisitions. In 1969, Cadbury merged with the American Schweppes, becoming at the same time a large drink. But last year, under pressure from shareholders, it is released to this activity, refocusing on the confectionery.

This is the signal that was waiting for Kraft to go on the offensive. Unlike the very linear route of Cadbury, the grandson of George, Dominic, was President of the company until 2000, the history of Kraft is full of noise and fury. Founded in Chicago in 1903 by a seller of cheese, he has been a considerable number of different owners, found himself in a conglomerate producing Duracell batteries and mailboxes Tupperware, prior to be purchased by the Philip Morris tobacco King in 1988 and merged with this opportunity with its competitor General Food. Two years later, the new set is handmade on the Jacobs Suchard, King of the café Swiss (great ' mother, Jacques Vabre) and chocolate (Suchard, Côte d'Or, Milka). In 2000, the cigarette maker marie new together at Nabisco and introduced all in stock exchange, before completely opt out of the company in 2007. Six months later, the firm again struck a great blow by swallowing any Danone biscuit, LU famous division, Prince and Belin.

For more than twenty years the company is therefore permanent restructuring, modifying its perimeter with opportunities. No wonder that the patron saint of Kraft, the ambitious Irene Rosenfeld, arrived at the head of the group in 2006, proclaims his desire to put some order in this shambles of more than 150 brands in the world, Australian pizzas condiments American frozen, passing through Swiss Toblerone chocolates. With the usual recipe: focus on strong brands, improvement of the product mix (exit products too undercover and unprofitable) and concentration of investment on the most promising trades and geographical markets.

This is where the interest for Cadbury. Food trades, the size is an advantage at two levels. Upstream to cushion the manufacture in very large series of global products, and downstream to negotiate the best with strong distributors. The issue is therefore not to be large overall, but large in its category. The Italian Ferrero is a modest global player but its power is considerable on products such as Nutella and Kinder. The game will therefore be to build or faster, to buy dominant positions in the areas where you want be present. Left to opt out elsewhere. Hence the incredible Monopoly that animates the profession permanently. Kraft, but also, Nestlé, Danone or March continuously play this game.

In the vast market of "food-conditioned" (as opposed to fresh products), which weighs more than 1,800 billion worldwide, according to Euromonitor, the submarket of confectionery is one of the most interesting. On the one hand, because it is very important, more than 160 billion (half of the market of dairy products) and, with another part, because it is one of the less sensitive to the crisis. It is well known, chocolate maintains the morale in a period of belt-tightening. For chewing gum, it is even better. Since it invented the sugar-free gum, sales are endlessly to climb. Euromonitor analysts () provide an annual sales growth of confectionery from 7 in volume over the period 2009-2014 and 8 for chewing gum. And this is only an average since the market settle in developed countries while it explodes in emerging countries. India chocolate market rose by 20 per year, while that half of the inhabitants have never tasted the delights of the by-products of the cocoa bean!

Cadbury is ideally placed in this configuration. More than a third of its sales come from the emerging countries, where it has unique positions: 70 of the market for Indian chocolate. Chewing gum, it holds almost 30 of the world market and Mexicans primarily chew the Cadbury Trident. March had not purchased Wrigley last year, it would be the world leader in the field. In this war of confectioners, March, the first party, has a head start with almost 15 of the world market, followed by Cadbury (10.3). Other, Nestlé, Hershey, Kraft or Ferrero, platoon is outpaced as their positions remain low in emerging countries. Kraft made good figure in chocolate, where he was the third world, but is absent from the magical chewing gum. The result of all this is that the operational margin of Kraft three points lower than that of Cadbury. The acquisition of the British would allow him a catch her, both in confectionery and in emerging countries, and to approach his ambition: becoming the leader of the cookie (it is already with the Danone LU), confectionery and prepared dishes. A proposal culinary that digests always not Cadbury, convinced that his future may be written in the singular. Nothing is less sure. The offensive of the malabar of Chicago has every chance to succeed. And in the contrary case, other contenders, Swiss and Americans, could be tempted to invite to the table of the old English of Bournville.