Speculation of course borrowed this path

The beginning of the year are difficult. Gold is no exception there. However, the factors which brought it to the sky year remain together. On the eve of the weekend, the course of an ounce is installed under 1,100 dollars to 1.092,70 dollars, confirming the trend made the day before. Since 4 December, and its peaks, it dropped more than 100 $. It is true that the dollar, with the precious metal is evolving in the opposite direction, is resumed against the other currencies, the euro at the top. In the immediate future, the situation does not appear near to improve. Especially when the restrictions envisaged by the US administration on banks trading activities could deprive capital placement and other raw materials.

Yet gold has fundamental good to continue its climb and hang a tenth consecutive year of gain. In 2009, the course of the once had 25,51, finishing the year with 1.098,60 dollars. On 3 December, it even reached an all-time high of 1.226,56 worth meeting in face value. The never-seen, but to put into perspective on developments in constant dollars in the course of an ounce, which, in the period 1979-1981, is was launched to 1,800 dollars due to the high inflation and the geopolitical tensions which were at the time the invasion of the Embassy us in Iran and the war between that country and the Iraq, as reported by the World Gold Council in its last quarterly delivery.

Behavior change

Last year, the gold market was worn by the excitement of the investments in the ETF (exchange traded funds"). Underlying these listed index fund grew from 573 tonnes of yellow metal, with mass immobilized in 1762 tonnes. Another phenomenon that could go on: "OTC market has been an important source of new demand in the fourth quarter," said GFMS independent Research Institute. Speculation, of course, borrowed this path. But also new, "hedge funds" and non-traditional institutional investors who did their shopping for gold for the long term.

"We found that some investors, who held the gold, had an average of 5 and 7 of their portfolio," noted the World Gold Council in his study. For the moment, they are rare, but perhaps augured a change in management, whose share of gold in the outstanding balance up to 4.4 of the assets now limited to 1.1, low compared to other alternative investments facing. Experts see a progression margin. "Nearly half of the investors surveyed plan to increase their exposure in gold..." More than two-thirds of them said hold gold in the first place to cover themselves against inflation and the dollar, and about half as portfolio diversification. "Less than one quarter of those polled use gold as a tactical vehicle", explains the body.

Reversal of the situation

Individuals have a similar vision. With economic uncertainties, they have increased their purchases of parts and ingots. In particular, the Chinese and Indians. According to the latest figures provided by the World Council of gold, to September 30, the amount reaches around 186 tonnes.

The prospect of a reversal of the situation, which gives hope for a restart of the application, also precipitated the higher metal prices. The gold companies felt it by raising their coverage against a reversal of the price of the yellow metal. In doing so, they were suddenly reduced available stocks. Finally the table, central banks have played a not insignificant role in the trend. If the institutions of the big countries found themselves once again embarked in Washington restrictive agreements on the gold sales, banks of emerging countries have they shown their commitment to increase their inventories in their reserves. Their interventions have also to contain the risk represented by the winding-up by the international monetary fund of its stocks. The India had acquired half of the 403 tons that the international body was sold on the market and thus participated with other courses on the market stability. These trends should not move this year.