The report of the Assembly still cautious on longterm forecasts

The reform of the special pension plans (SNCF, RATP, EDF, GDF) continues to be debate. Entry into force a little over a year ago, it was intended to generate significant savings for the State, which now subsidizes plans of SNCF and the RATP to height of 3.1 billion euros per year for the national society and 500 million for autonomous governance more. By bringing the rules in force from those of other regimes (duration of contribution of forty years from 2012, indexation of pensions on prices, establishment of storm surges and haircuts), reform should attempt to correct, at least at the margin imbalances facing pension systems two transportation companies. These regimes are a very negative report between the number of contributors and pensioners, including to the SNCF, with more retirees than assets.

Less than 7 of the grant

The balance sheet, as it is drawn up by the Parliament from new data provided by the companies, is for the less mixed. "The gain resulting from this reform could be void", prevents even the report of the National Assembly last weekend. Members do not put in doubt the reality of the savings by the SNCF retirement plan, which are of two kinds. On the one hand, the revenue will be more important - officers contribute more long and higher end - levels, on the other hand, expenditures are lower, because pensions are paid later. Savings are estimated at 300 million per year for the SNCF on average over the period 2009-2030, with significant, representing 10 of the grant of the State and a total cumulative earnings of 6.5 billion in 2030.

But the net impact of the reform, to take into account the accompanying measures that the social partners have negotiated: salary increases by the creation of a level of additional seniority, treatment increases, taking into account the hardship, etc. For the SNCF, "their cost is estimated in average to 112 million euros per year over the period 2010-2030". Result, are more 300 million in savings per year are planned, but less than 200 million, which represents less than 7 of the grant by the State, said the report of the Senate.

Most importantly, behind these averages, it should be noted that by 2015 the gross gain exceeds 500 million per year. Would on the other hand, beyond 2020, gross profit fall 150 million per year, a level below the cost of the accompanying measures ( 217 million per year starting in 2013)! In other words, the reform would allow substantial savings in the next ten years, but they totally offset between 2020 and 2030. The report of the Assembly still cautious on long-term forecasts. The impact of the reform to the SNCF is "difficult to determine", he warned, because it is impossible to accurately predict the behaviour of agents. The Government and the company noted that a significant proportion of railway workers have already decided to postpone the date of retirement.

The RATP, is in the short term that the situation is embarrassing. Up to 2015, reform generate to light additional costs of approximately 2 million per year, because there still granted counterparties. Savings would then occur, but "by 2020, the gain would only EUR 23 million", notes the report of the Senate.