State bonds which withered shortly before

After a first part of day under the sign of the relaxation, American bond markets again experienced some tensions, with the publication of the Philadelphia Fed index to 18 hours (French time). It is found at 18.5 points in August, well beyond the forecasts of analysts (9 points) and the level of July (6 points). However, the Federal Reserve indicates that contractors were less optimistic about future growth. This figure nevertheless gave counters to zero return for U.S. State bonds which withered shortly before. The rate over 2 years was 2 points, to 4,888, while that of 10 years was 4,859. On the currency front, the febrile dollar was a bit of tone against the other currencies, but not enough to restore the levels of the day before, notably against the euro. Abandoned by the policy of monetary tightening from the Fed, the greenback remains basically oriented downward. Yesterday, the euro stood at 1,2856 dollar to the mi-séance, against 1,2841 the previous day. For 1 dollar, there was need to 115,54 yen.

The scenario of a slowdown in soft U.S. economy takes body, powered by less than the previous and prognostic statistics.

The inflation risk persists

Yesterday, new weekly claims for US unemployment allowance came the comfort. While analysts expected a figure of 315,000, the Ministry of labour announced 312.000 against 322.000 the previous week. Then, leading indicators from the Conference Board, which give a trend of the situation in the six months to are eroded by 0.1 in July, after an increase of 0.1 in June.

For Mapi (Manufacturers Alliance) industry, 18 months of growth mixed blessing considering, with a GDP increase of 3.3 in 2006, and 2.5 in 2007, and not 2.7, as originally planned. Its chief economist Daniel Meckstroth, justifies this adjustment by a slowdown in spending for consumption and industrial activity, the progression should return to 2.5 next year, after a forecast of 5 this year. What good economists who play the status quo for the next term of the Fed's monetary policy Committee, on 20 September.

However, the inflationary threat has not disappeared. "The trend of inflation is undeniably upward," said Richard Fisher, President of the Dallas Federal Reserve yesterday. 82 of the components of the price index linked to the spending were progressing in June. Richard Fisher does not support the use at all costs of the weapon of rates, lest they knock down the economy. This is not the case of the European Central Bank (ECB), engaged in a process of escalating rates. Two weeks ago, it has identified a quarter of a point, for the 4th time since December. According to economists, the decline in inflation observed in July in the euro area, and disclosed yesterday, should not influence the policy of the ECB. In July, prices reached 2.4 annual rate, compared with 2.5 in June, but they remain above the Community objective of 2. Nevertheless, the European bond yields declined. The borrowing of State 10 years French assigned 1 point, to 3,929, as the same maturity, 3.91 German.

Yesterday, the oil, one of the main factors of the increase in prices, contributed to appease the spirits. Indeed, black gold prices fell to their lowest level in two months.