If this trend is not reversed Russian reserves could dry up

Conventional ideas rarely survived a good stress test, or few tests were also stressful than those that have shaken the world economy in the last 24 months.

The easy idea that the the BRIC countries (the Brazil, the Russia, the India and China) will increasingly set the tone in the global economy in the coming years had been relatively spared. This concept is derived from a report by Goldman Sachs from 2003 and it is not justified: exact at the three-quarters, it is one of the best economic forecasts of the time.

Nevertheless, the economic crisis that began in 2008 has shown that one of the four countries of the BRIC is an impostor.

The weakness of the Russian economy and its banks and companies hilt - hidden in recent years by exceptionally high revenues from oil and natural gas - appeared at the big day when the world economy began to falter. With its aging infrastructure, the Russia is further disqualified because his revenge and inadequate policy and a demography in almost terminal decline.

Despite the slight uplift of the price of raw materials during six months, the production of the Russian energy sector declined in recent years, partly because of fears of expropriation of foreign investors. The sovereign funds Russian, which is essential to stimulate an economy more and more centralized, melts quickly. If this trend is not reversed, Russian reserves could dry up.

The landing of the Russia gave birth to a game among academics, policy experts and savvy investors, who will replace it in the large emerging market economies club. A series of acronyms have been proposed, ranging from the dubious Bricet (adding the Eastern Europe and the Turkey) to the Brickets (in already in the previous group the Korea of the South), passing by the daring BRIMC if one includes the Mexico. The Russia is still holds its place, though it is economically the brink.

From the point of view of its potential and its economic fundamentals, the inclusion of the South Korea would be far more justified. This is an advanced economic power whose main weakness is the risk of collapse of his evil twin regime in the North, opening the gates to a flood of hungry refugees. The inclusion of the Turkey would be just as justified - with its strong banking sector, its thriving indoor market, its growing importance in the Middle East, the development of its energy policy, membership in NATO and its application to the European Union.

Perhaps is the country in a better position the Indonesia, the first Muslim country in the world by its population, with a middle class in rapid growth, a relatively stable democracy and an economy that glitters in Asia despite the global recession.

In addition, the Indonesia demonstrated resilience, not only economically, but as a nation. Despite its ethnic diversity and the myriad of scattered islands that make up, the country has managed a rapid transition after the military dictatorship and are relieved of a myriad of challenges and setbacks, including the Asian financial crisis in 1997, the tsunami in 2004, the emergence of Islamic radicalism and unrest at home. Even if its GDP per capita remains low, is the potential that matters.With a population of 230 million people, it is already the fourth most populous country in the world.